A Monograph
Canadian Solar Power Initiative
Paul Isaacs
September 2013
Summary
The twentieth century saw the rise to dominance of fossil fuels as the main energy and power source of the industrialized world. The dominance of fossil fuels was not an accident. No other fuel could compare with fossil fuel, particularly crude oil, for energy and power density, both by weight and by volume, as well as for ease of acquisition and quantity of supply.
Industrial society over the past 100 years has been constructed with the implicit assumption that these fuels would continue to be available in the quantities and at a price that would allow the structure of industrial society to continue in its current form.
However, fossil fuels are a finite resource. The rise of deep water oil platforms, tar sands mining and hydraulic fracturing are all indicators of a decline in the availability of sufficient quantities of easily obtainable, high quality, inexpensive crude oil. These “unconventional sources” of fossil fuels are, relative to high quality liquid crude oil, expensive, low quality and low production volume sources of energy and power. As conventional oil continues to decline, “unconventional oil” will not be produced at low enough prices and with sufficient volumes to allow the current industrial infrastructure to continue to power itself.
The importance of power is not sufficiently appreciated. This monograph, as its title implies, is about power and its relation to Canada's current and future industrial, residential, agricultural and solar infrastructure.
Power and Energy
Available energy is the ability to “do work” or “get things done”. Available energy is society's master resource. Without available energy a society ceases to function because nothing “gets done”.
Power is the ability to “get things done quickly”.
The ancient Egyptians had enough energy available to build the pyramids. They did not have the power to build the pyramids quickly.
In the medieval period there was sufficient energy available to construct magnificent cathedrals. However, without the power available from crude oil, these cathedrals often took 100 years to complete.
Power, not energy, is the distinguishing singular feature of our current society. That power comes almost exclusively from crude oil. Without an equally powerful alternative, the decline of crude oil will, inevitably, be paralleled by an inability to maintain our existing industrial and social infrastructure in its current form.
Currently, there is no known energy source that can replace crude oil's capacity to power our society. Even if such a source were available, it is highly doubtful that its price would be able to match the price of crude oil.
The only realistic conclusion to be drawn is that our society will be have to reduce its dependence on power.
Solar power
There is more than enough energy and power available from the sun to supply our current infrastructures. The sun, however, does not supply energy and power in a form that can be used by our current infrastructures.
The sun does not supply the continuous stream of energy that our current infrastructures demand. Neither does the sun supply the power density available from fossil fuels that our infrastructures are designed to require .
However, the sun is the only source of energy and power that is both renewable and available to us in the required amounts with existing technology at an affordable cost. In some jurisdictions the decline in cost of photovoltaic solar power is bringing solar power close to cost parity with utility power and the number and scale of solar installations is challenging the utilities' profitability during periods of peak solar power.
Therefore, if we are going to successfully transition our infrastructures away from dependence on declining fossil fuels and avoid a reduction in our standards of living, we are going to need a national effort to adapt our infrastructures to be compatible with the sun's resources.
Solar Power: Forms
Solar power currently has two commercial technologies. Solar photovoltaic power converts sunlight to electricity. Solar radiant power converts sunlight to heat.
Solar photovoltaic power can be used to power almost all electrical devices. Solar radiant power is used almost exclusively for water heating.
Solar Power: Adaptation and Power
Power grants a society the ability to do work quickly. Solar power will not not be available in either the quantity or the concentration that crude oil supplies. The inevitable conclusion is that our society will be required to adapt by changing our infrastructure to function more slowly and be distributed more widely. A built infrastructure that requires commuting large distances each day in personal vehicles will be very difficult, if not impossible, to support. Moving large quantities of food long distances every day will not be a viable option.
The consumption and discarding of large volumes of material every day, “mass flow”, requires a great deal of power. Adaptation to solar power will demand a significant reduction of the “consumer” society.
Solar Power: Adaptation and Intermittency
A frequent objection to the use of solar power is that it is intermittent. Crude oil is not an intermittent power source because it enables the storage of large quantities of energy in extremely small volumes. Hydrocarbon molecules have been unique in their combination of energy storage, availability in large volumes and extremely low cost. It must not be forgotten that the hydrocarbons in crude oil come to us premade. We do not have to manufacture them. Tar sands hydrocarbons, while also premade, are a significant step down in available and affordable energy because, relative to crude oil, they have to be both gathered from a distributed source and processed before they are useful fuel.
The decline of fossil fuel decreases our access to large volumes of inexpensive ready-made, storable fuel.
Solar photovoltaic energy is electrical in nature and batteries are our best currently available storage technology. The energy density of batteries is, however, not comparable to fossil fuels and, therefore solar power will be, and will likely remain, intermittent.
However, save for the last 100 years, human history has been using intermittent energy sources.
Agriculture, for example, to this day, inventories food for later use because the energy from plants is fundamentally intermittent. Most of the grain mills in Canada were intermittent. Water was accumulated in a mill ponds until enough had been accumulated to allow grain to be milled.
Solar power follows a pattern of intermittency that has a history as long a civilization. The objection that solar power is intermittent is a reflection of the exceptional characteristics of crude oil and a lack of appreciation of its non-renewable nature.
In fact, even though it is intermittent, a residential photovoltaic solar power installation today provides an amount of energy that a homeowner as recently as 150 years ago could only dream of.
The intermittency objection to solar power is only a significant objection if one is also, unrealistically, demanding a continuation of today's level of power use.
Solar Power: Adaptation and Centralization
The power density of fossil fuels makes the central generation and subsequent distribution of power possible. Electrical power is generated centrally in fossil fuel generating stations and subsequently distributed through the electrical grid. Transportation fuels are refined centrally and subsequently distributed to service stations.
The central generation infrastructure is only possible because the energy density of fossil fuels makes it possible to transport large amounts of stored energy in very small volumes. The transportation of the fuel to a central site is economically viable.
Photovoltaic solar power will not permit a form of centralized infrastructure. The energy generated by solar power is not readily stored. Neither do the currently available storage devices have the required energy volume and weight densities to permit economic stored energy transport.
The majority of generated solar power will have to be utilized both when it is generated and where it is generated. The centralized infrastructure that has grown with the availability of fossil fuels can not be retained.
Solar Power: Adaptation and Transportation
The weight and volume energy density of crude oil have enabled the construction of a transportation infrastructure based on individual cars and trucks. Without this high energy density liquid fuel available in large amounts at affordable cost, the current transportation infrastructure can not survive.
The current transport infrastructure is also predicated on a large mass flow through society. Tens of millions of vehicles are manufactured every year. A large amount of power, much of it provided by crude oil, is required to sustain this mass flow. The power available to society to sustain the current mass flow will decline in tandem with the decline in availability of inexpensive crude oil.
Solar power can not provide the energy density required to support the current transportation infrastructure. A transition to a society that both travels less, uses more energy efficient transport, such as rail and water, and carries more payload per trip is inevitable.
Solar Power: National Standards
One of the functions of government is to support the cohesiveness of the societies that they represent. The setting of national standards is a cost effective method of creating a beneficial common unity of purpose and method for the work done within a society.
When excess energy is available, national standards are less important than when energy is scarce and must be used effectively by society at large. A solar powered society will not have the same amount of energy available as a crude oil powered society. National solar power standards will be an important part of making the transition to a solar powered society.
A solar powered society will not be centrally powered. It will consist of a multitude of small, compared to a crude oil powered society, power generation facilities. A commonality amongst these generation facilities will significantly reduce the cost of manufacture of their components.
Setting a national standard for solar infrastructure will greatly assist in the transition to a solar powered society.
Solar Power: National Infrastructure
The primary raw material required by a solar powered society is wafers of ultra-pure silicon. Manufacturing these wafers requires both high technology and large amounts of capital.
It is unlikely that the small manufacturing plants that will, of necessity, characterize a solar power society will have access to the resources required to produce silicon wafers. Therefore, it is reasonable for society at large, via the national government, to produce the silicon wafers that are at the base of a solar power infrastructure.
A solar power society would, therefore, most likely be a hybrid infrastructure with society at large providing the most challenging basic components and individual businesses enterprises providing the final manufactured devices and systems.
Solar Power: National Geography
Canada is a very large country and it can not avoid the challenges raised by distance. In particular a centralized infrastructure requires very large distribution networks. The electrical grid of a centralized infrastructure will have many miles of wire and the transportation network will require many miles of road.
Large amounts of inexpensive crude oil enable the construction and maintenance of these networks. A solar powered society will not be able to support similarly sized networks in a country of Canada's size.
A solar powered Canada would consist of many distributed small networks. In more isolated locations solar power would likely be on a per residence basis.
Solar Power: Potential Physical Infrastructures
Both solar photovoltaic and radiant power devices are manufactured as “panels”. A national standard for panel sizes and mounting methods would help reduce production costs.
It would be particularly advantageous if the standard specified that roof mounted panels be mounted with no gaps between panels. Such a standard would enable the solar panels to become a roof in themselves thereby saving the cost of shingles or other roofing materials.
Conclusion
The twentieth century built an industrial and residential infrastructure based on the consumption of the most powerful, plentiful and inexpensive source of energy in history. The first decades of the twenty-first century are seeing the beginning of the inevitable decline in the availability and affordability of that energy source.
Countries such as Germany, Sweden and Denmark have adopted national renewable energy policies in recognition of the fact that crude oil is a declining resource.
Germany enacted the “Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources” in 1997 . The directive's target was to have 12% renewable energy by 2010. In fact, that target was exceeded in 2007 when 14% of Germany's electrical power was from renewable sources.
These countries are using national policies to commence building their renewable energy infrastructure while fossil fuel resources are still available to provide bootstrap energy for manufacture and construction. The construction of a renewable energy infrastructure will require significant quantities of energy, material and capital. There is a significant danger that a national renewable energy infrastructure will be beyond reach if its construction is not commenced while the necessary prerequisites are still available and affordable.
The following article appeared recently. It illustrates clearly the decline of availability of crude oil.
Sue Bailey, The Canadian Press
Published Thursday, September 26, 2013 6:46AM EDT
Last Updated Thursday, September 26, 2013 12:13PM EDT
ST. JOHN'S, N.L. -- News of a major oil find off Newfoundland was welcomed Thursday in a province that leans heavily on offshore earnings although potential production is not expected until after 2020.
"It's not that often a company makes an oil discovery of this size," said Geir Richardsen, vice-president of Statoil Canada Exploration.
Noteworthy information from the article includes the fact that the discovery is significant for its size of 600 million barrels and that production is not expected for another 7 years.
The world currently consumes approximately 89 million barrels of oil per day. This “significant” discovery would provide the world with 600/89, or less than 7 days, of oil. The vice-president of Statoil Canada Exploration states "It's not that often a company makes an oil discovery of this size".
The need for a Canadian Solar Power Initiative needs no further illustration.
Paul Isaacs
Denbigh, Ontario